Numbers, Odds, Randomness and Uncertainty

I love numbers.

Those words might come as a surprise from a writer, but, for as long as I can remember, I’ve been smitten with numbers as much as words. Numbers are comforting. They explain. They form patterns. They offer proof. They tell stories. They can predict the ending for those stories.

Or so I thought.

Turns out that my elaborate spreadsheets, line charts and data during treatment did little in the way of comforting, explaining, proving or predicting. At best, the numbers gave me the allusion of control.

In spite of my disillusionment with digits, I'm still fascinated by the science of predictability and the age-old question, "What are the odds?"

I was especially intrigued with this NY Times opinion piece by "the editors" and Leonard Mlodinow, author of “The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives."

The author's answer to this email question struck a chord:

An earlier post by the psychologist Daniel Gilbert makes the argument that uncertainty — not knowing what misfortune will come — makes people more unhappy than misfortune itself. Do you find that to be true?

It does seem to be true of my own psychology. Also, I find that what’s most important, whatever happens, is how you deal with it. And once something bad actually happens, you can start that process, and bad can eventually even turn into good.

I'd never heard the uncertainty/unhappiness theory, but I can certainly relate. For me, the hardest stretches during diagnosis, treatment and remission have been the pockets of uncertainty. And Mlondinow gets it right in his response.

So how do we deal with the uncertainties of illness or life? Carl at A Pastor's Cancer Diary does a great job of describing the frustration (and eventual acceptance) of living with uncertainty, what Dr. Seuss called "the most useless place. The waiting place . . . "

For Carl and others, the operative word of "living with uncertainty" is living. And you don't need a spreadsheet for that.

(Leonard Mlodinow will be at Vroman's Bookstore in Pasadena on June 11. I'll be there.
5-25 Update: Oops. Mlodinow was at Vroman's in 2008. I'm only a year late. He's a local CalTech guy, so I hope I have another opportunity to hear him in person.)